A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
